Premier League - relegation fight intensifies NEWS
There's top action this weekend at both the top and, perhaps more intensely, the bottom of the Premier League.
QPR and Aston Villa achieved dramatic victories last weekend to strengthen their position in the battle to avoid relegation whilst Reading are starting to look haggard and Wigan took a week off from league worries with a fantastic FA Cup quarter-final win.
Rangers picked up a hugely valuable three points with their come-from-behind 3-1 win at home against a Sunderland team who can't seem to pull away from the relegation zone. Whilst QPR remain at the bottom of the table they're now just four points away from safety with games to come against Villa, Wigan and Reading.
On current form you wouldn't bet against QPR managing to stay up and you could say the same for Villa who won at the Madejski, striker Christian Benteke again showing his class. As has been said before on this forum, Benteke is high class and could the main reason for Villa avoiding the drop.
Reading on the other hand are looking ever more precarious, despite the fantastic spirit at the club. It would seem that they just lack the overall quality of the teams around them and replacing the manager Brian McDermott at this late stage appears to be a move of real desperation. They still have their destiny in their own hands with games against Villa, Southampton and, has been mentioned above, QPR. However, they've also got Man Utd up this week, as well as games with Arsenal and Liverpool to follow.
Wigan, who gloriously beat Everton 3-0 at Goodison Park to reach their first FA Cup semi-final, are also looking vulnerable even if they have a fine pedigree in avoiding the drop. An FA Cup final would be wonderful for the players, club officials and of course the fans, but not if it comes at the expense of their top-flight status.
One thing's for certain - its all still to play for. No team is dead and buried and every week will see some new twist or turn in the competition to stay in the Premier League and reap the financial rewards that will follow the new TV deal from next season onwards.
The top of the table sees little change from last week as the top two were engaged in FA Cup action, as were fourth placed Chelsea who, in their quarter-final clash, came back from a 2-0 deficit at Old Trafford to force a replay against Man Utd. In truth they were unlucky not to win that game after a terrible start and may feel they missed their best chance to see off Utd, who tired badly in the second half.
Having thrashed Barnsley 5-0 Man City, who were led by an inspired Carlos Tevez, now lie in wait for the eventual winners of Man Utd v Chelsea, so there will definitely be one of the big teams in the final to meet either Wigan or Millwall, who eventually saw off Blackburn in a replay.
Had Utd lost it would have been a terrible end to a bad week after their unfortunate exit from the Champions League at the hands of Real Madrid. Despite the widespread, but clearly premature, media reports that Wayne Rooney's time at Old Trafford is coming to an end, Sir Alex was emphatic in statements that the player is going nowhere and that Wazza understood the tactical reason for him starting on the bench against Real. Utd legend Bobby Charlton backed that up stating that Rooney will never leave Utd, a sentiment I agree with.
Anyone watching the game on against Real could see that Ferguson made the right decision and it was only the incorrect (in my opinion) sending off of Nani that lost Utd the game, as Real scored twice in the immediate aftermath of that event whilst Utd were still coming to terms with his loss. Other than that Utd were the better team, as acknowledged by Jose Mourinho. Unfortunately, that's football.
Spurs were the only team of the top five to play a league game and they went down 3-2 at Anfield, a result which could cost them third spot should Chelsea win their game in hand. Liverpool's win puts them just two points below Arsenal, although the Gunners, who didn't play at all this week, have a game in hand over the Reds.
The battle for the title is all but done but there's still much to play for at the top end of the table. Nearly everyone agrees that Liverpool probably have too much to do to achieve fourth place but who knows, with Chelsea and Arsenal being somewhat unpredictable with both their performances and results. What is certain is that for Liverpool to be playing Champions League football next season they'll have to play out of their skins and probably win every remaining league game.
Looking at the respective run-ins of the teams in positions three - six, Arsenal have by far the easiest on paper with no games against any other club in the top six, all of the others having to play at least one match against another top team. That suggests it's advantage Arsenal in the battle for a Champions League spot, with the others having to fight it out for the last place in that competition and perhaps two Europa League places, depending upon who wins the FA Cup. Of course its as dangerous meeting relegation threatened teams at this stage of the season as they fight like tigers to stay up.
Arsenal went down gallantly against Bayern Munich becoming the first team to beat the German champions elect since December, winning 2-0 in the Allianz Arena. Arsenal managed that excellent result without the pivotal Jack Wilshere who is out for a couple of weeks and they'll perhaps miss his influence this weekend at Swansea.
Arsenal's Champions League elimination means that for the first time in 17 years there is no English representation in that's competition's quarter-finals, something Gunners manager Arsene Wenger believes is indicative of a decline in the superiority of the Premier League. It's a bit soon for so damning an assessment but there's no doubt that both the Bundesliga and Serie A have caught up whilst La Liga, with three teams in the last eight, remains as strong as ever.
On the flip side there are three Premier League clubs in the last eight of the Europa League as all of Chelsea, Spurs and Newcastle negotiated tricky last 16 ties. Despite going down 4-1 at Inter Milan Spurs went through courtesy of that one away goal, whilst Chelsea beat Steaua Bucharest 3-2 on aggregate and Newcastle snatched a late winner against Anzhi Makhachkala to win 1-0 overall.
The trio's reward for their success is that they are kept apart in the quarter-finals with Chelsea facing Rubin Kazan, Spurs taking on FC Basel and Newcastle being drawn against Benfica.
This weekend sees a return to a full set of fixtures after last week's FA Cup quarter-finals and here's BritEvent's full preview: -
Saturday 16 March
Everton v Man City - 12.45pm ko at Goodison Park. The most anticipated game of the week and potentially its best is first up on Saturday lunch time with Man City travelling to Merseyside looking to get a win to put pressure on Man Utd who play later in the day. Everton were poor in crashing out of the FA Cup to Wigan last week and if they're not careful they may slip out of the competition for the European places. So, expect to see a reaction from David Moyes' men this week, particularly if they want him to sign a new contract and stay at Goodison. Both teams are missing key players with Everton missing Phil Jagielka and Tim Howard and City having to do without captain Vincent Kompany and Sergio Aguero, but they also have enough talent to make this an exciting encounter. I fancy the Toffees to make this tough for City but, with the equation being simple for them - win or effectively hand the title to Utd, City will eke out the required win.
Aston Villa v QPR - 3pm ko at Villa Park. For the third week in a row QPR face one of their fellow cellar dwellers and, after beating Southampton and Sunderland in the last two weeks their prospects for survival are very much improved. That said, Aston Villa also enjoyed a good result last week, winning 2-1 away at Reading. The full 'Houdini escapology' act is under way and with his previous record who would bet against Harry keeping QPR in the top-flight. Villa are in only a slightly better position so this will be a real scrap, although the home team might just be happy to avoid a defeat as they are four points above their opponents. Villa have no fresh injury worries and Rangers could recall goalkeeper Julio Cesar and Adel Tarrabt so both teams are pretty much at full strength. I can see these teams fighting each other to a standstill draw.
Southampton v Liverpool - 3pm ko at St. Mary's Stadium. Southampton won a hard-earned point at Norwich last week but with teams just below them managing to win they're under increasing pressure. Liverpool enhanced their chances of earning a place in one of the European competitions with a fine 3-2 defeat of on-form Spurs last week and they'll be looking to maintain their own recent good form. Liverpool's recent good run of form has seen them score 21 goals in their last seven league games with top scorer Luis Suarez netting a goal a game in his last 16 appearances - the Saints will need to contain him if they are to get anything out of this game. The Saints have a full strength team which we can assume they will need. Strange as it may seem I think Liverpool's urge to get back into Europe is stronger than Southampton's Premier League survival desire and the Reds will take all three points.
Stoke v West Brom - 3pm ko at the Britannia Stadium. A midlands derby that has seen some quite tasty recent encounters between these teams. West Brom had a good win over Swansea last week whilst Stoke were beaten at Newcastle who dominated play but only managed the winner late on, frustrating Stoke manager Tony Pullis who was keen to point out that his team shouldn't have lost from the winning position they'd established. When the teams last met in December Stoke won at the Hawthorns and seemed set for a top 10 finish. Since then West Brom have fared the better of the two sides as the Potters have taken only three points since the turn of the year although they are still relatively safe from the threat of relegation. Stoke will have to make do without one of the cornerstones of their rugged defence as Robert Huth finishes his suspension, whilst Albion are without the still injured striker Shane Long. This game has 1-1 draw written all over it as far as I can see.
Swansea v Arsenal - 3pm ko at the Liberty Stadium. Swansea lost at West Brom last week courtesy of a fluke own goal by Dutch midfielder Jonathan De Guzman. Other than that they probably deserved a draw at the hawthorns. The Gunners were inactive last weekend but they were very impressive in beating Bayern Munich 2-0 in Germany, although they still exited the Champions League on aggregate. It must be of great frustration to Arsene Wenger and fans alike that his team can't be more consistent, producing more performances like the one in Germany on a more frequent basis. This fixture should be more akin to a European confrontation with two teams keen to retain possession and out-manoeuvre their opponents, the result hinging on who does it better. There's far more at stake for the Gunners and that gives them the edge - Arsenal, who should have Vermaelen and Szczesny back in the line-up to win by a single goal.
Man Utd v Reading - 5.30pm ko at Old Trafford. These sides only met at Old Trafford a few weeks ago in an FA Cup encounter won by Utd. Since that time Utd have maintained their stranglehold on the league and been eliminated from the Champions League whilst Reading have slipped even further in the league, losing at home to fellow strugglers Aston Villa last week. Reading are in no hurry apparently to appoint a permanent successor to the recently sacked Brian McDermott although former West Ham favourite Paulo di Canio appears favourite for the job. Perhaps someone should have advised the Reading owner Anton Zingarevich against making a management change as no team in the bottom three have ever sacked a boss this late in the season and survived. Utd may recall Nemanja Vidic to partner Rio Ferdinand who has been recalled to the England squad (I'll bet Fergie's not happy) and Robin van Persie to further strengthen their starting XI and make Reading's prospects even more dire. With both Jason Roberts and Pavel Pogrebnyak out its hard to see how the Royals will threaten the Utd goal. Man Utd by two or three goals.
Sunday 17 March
Sunderland v Norwich - 1.30pm ko at the Stadium of Light. Norwich are something of the draw kings of the Premier League, with five stalemates in their last 10 games, four of them being scoreless. Chris Hughton probably thought the last of those, the 0-0 draw with Southampton last week, was theirs for the taking after a controversial penalty award, only for Grant Holt's spot kick to be saved. Sunderland would probably settle for a couple of draws rather than the defeats they've been suffering lately, the latest being the 3-1 loss at QPR, and their season-long inability to score frequently enough could still come back to haunt them. Should Sunderland fans look ahead and assess their team's chances of taking points in the next few weeks they could be forgiven if they shudder a little with Man Utd, Chelsea, Everton and Newcastle all on the menu. That makes this game all the more important. A win would go a long way to easing nerves at the Stadium of Light but a defeat means they are right on the verge of being genuine relegation candidates. Martin O'Neill is still, in my opinion, a gifted coach and I fancy he will find a way to revitalise his team for the challenge ahead - Black Cats win.
Spurs v Fulham - 3pm ko at White Hart Lane. The first of a London derby double-header this Sunday. Whilst Spurs' excellent run of results came to an end at Anfield last week they only lost due to a couple of basic defensive errors and could easily have won the game. Belgian defender Jan Vertonghen is growing in influence for Spurs and he's just one of a whole host of fellow Belgians who are performing well week-in, week-out in England's top division. This could be a pivotal week for Spurs, still in the hunt for the Europa League and a top four place guaranteeing Champions League football next season. Talisman and top-scorer Gareth Bale returns from suspension and Michael Dawson, deservedly recalled to the England squad, is also back, so Spurs should have a strong line-up against a well rested Fulham team for whom Tottenham old-boy, Dimitar Berbatov, has been massively influential. If Spurs are tired after their midweek Europa League efforts Fulham could test them, but they'll still win.
Chelsea v West Ham - 4pm ko at Stamford Bridge. London derby part deux. The manner of their come back at Old Trafford will cheer Chelsea fans hoping for a positive end to the season and hopefully some silverware in the shape of the FA Cup and maybe even the Europa League following their 3-1 win over Steaua Bucharest. West Ham rested last week and they'll be up for making Rafa Benitez's life ever more miserable. However, the Hammers have been woeful on the road this season and they haven't won at the Bridge in 10 years. Benitez could recall Demba Ba to the starting line-up after he was cup-tied for the Europa League game and he may feel that the combative John Terry is better suited to the physical challenge West Ham present. The Hammers came from 1-0 down to win 3-1 when the two teams met at Upton Park earlier in the season but Chelsea will not be taken like that twice - win for the Blues.
Wigan v Newcastle - 4pm ko at the DW Stadium. Wigan return to league action after their wonderful 3-0 demolition of Everton in the FA Cup and manager Roberto Martinez could be forgiven for hoping for a repeat performance against a Newcastle team fresh from reaching the Europa League quarter-finals. Newcastle will be without their influential French midfielder Cabaye who picked up a groin strain against Anzhi and they've confirmed that fellow Frenchman Hatem Ben Arfa is out for the remainder of the season. Looking at the team's respective home and away records show that something has to give. The Latics have the worst home record in all four divisions whilst the Magpies have only won once away all season - someone's record should improve then, but whose? Who will recover better and soonest from their respective Cup success? Newcastle have acquired a spine as shown by their come-from-behind win against Stoke last week and I have a sneaking suspicion that they'll just edge this game.
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