Premier League - do or die for QPR and Reading NEWS
There are some massivley vital games at the top and bottom of the Premier League this weekend with six-pointer matches at both ends of the table.
At the bottom of the table QPR and Reading face D-Day, the D standing for doom should they lose their games this week. Defeats would mean they not only fail to gain ground on the teams above them but, the three points Wigan and Southampton would therefore gain woud allow them to pull further ahead.
A measure of the pressure that whole clubs start to feel at this crucial stage of the season can be seen in the decision of the Sunderland board to dispense with the services of manager Marton O'Neil and replace him with the charismatic, if untested, Paulo di Canio. The fact that history shows us that changing your manager in March does little to change your fate seems to have escaped the notice of those in charge at Sunderland. Di Canio's alleged facist sympathies are not going down well either.
Another relegation six-pointer (sort of) sees Stoke, who've dropped down the table like a stone in the last few months, take on Aston Villa who let slip a precious lead against Liverpool last week. This game could be a mini-cracker with Stoke still fairly strong at home and Villa badly in need of points, so committed to attack.
At the top, the champions-elect Man Utd host the reigning champions Man City, the 15 point cushion they've built meaning that another win would see them 18 points in front with only a maximum of 21 left to win. City won't give up their title without a fight but the truth is, even should they win at Old Trafford, they'll still need a miracle to overhaul Utd. For Utd it seems that the finishing stages of this season will be something of an anti-climax with the title in the bag but no latter stages of a Cup competition with which to look forward.
Just below the top two, Spurs, who are currently in fourth spot, host six-placed Everton, who are only six points below them, both teams having won their last game to keep up the pressure on Arsenal who lie between them in fifth. This three way battle for the last Champions League place is certainly one of the most interesting sub-plots as we head towards the season's end.
Whilst the other games perhaps lack the significance of the ones mentioned above every single fixture sees a team either battling to avoid relegation to the Championship or for a place in either the Champions League or Europa League next season, even the Norwich v Swansea game, now that Norwich are just above the relegation places.
Last weekend also saw the last FA Cup semi-final place decided as Chelsea beat Man Utd 1-0 at home on Easter Monday, meaning they will take on Man City for a place in the final against either Millwall or Wigan. Rafa Benitez appears determined to complete his brief tenure as Chelsea boss with a trophy, although the FA Cup and/or Europa League would be very much a consolation prize after the club failed so badly in their defence of the Champions League and lagged behind the Manchester pair in the league.
The identity of Benitez's replacement is still to be decided although Jose Mourinho's name keeps cropping up and he's certainly the bookies favourite. David Moyes' name has been mentioned in despatches, as has that of Gus Poyet and Gus Hiddink. Another interesting possibility is the current coach of the French national team Laurent Blanc, although his availability would be questionable until the issue of next year's World Cup is settled.
With all of QPR, Reading, Southampton and Sunderland having changed managers, and Chelsea due to do so again at season's end its hard to gauge whether any other clubs are likely to seek alternative leadership. The respective results of Stoke and Norwich in the last three to four months could perhaps indicate that Tony Pullis and Chris Hughton should be keeping an eye on the situations vacant column, but neither club is really a sacking club, and both seem to appreciate the value of stability in building consistency. The again, who knows? Relegation for either club would certainly change the equation, possibly to the detriment of the managers involved.
Roberto Mancini's departure from the Etihad wouldn't be a complete surprise after Man City once more failed to make it past the group stages of the Champions League as well as failing to defend their Premier League crown. As with Chelsea possible suitable replacements appear thin on the ground and this could allow Mancini another year's reprieve.
The champions-to-be, man Utd face a different type of challenge this off-season. Sir Alex seems set to carry on for a few seasons yet, his avowed aim to bring another Champions League to Old Trafford. However, his squad seem ill-equipped to meet that challenge as matters stand. Players must leave in order to create room and free up cash for some new blood.
Favourites to leave Utd this Summer are Nani and Anderson, neither of whom has made much of an impact this season. Giggs and Scholes can't carry on forever and, whilst Carrick, Cleverley and Kagawa are excellent Premier League standard players, Utd still lack that real world-class talent in midfield, capable of unlocking the very best defences and unleashing their quartet of strikers. Could an audacious bid for Gareth Bale be on the cards? Would £60m say, be enough to prise him away from Spurs. Heresy I hear Tottenham fans cry.
In defence Vidic and Ferdinand have been very good of late but they are not getting any younger. Whilst the club staill has the youth of Jones, Smalling and Evans another quality centre back could be introduced to allow for the phasing out of the old guard, particularly as Jones has all the makings of a top class defensive midfielder rather than a centre-half.
Man City too will no doubt re-build their squad. With Balotelli sold in January City need a fourth striker if they are to maintain a serious challenge in Europe as well as in the league next year. Without a major championship and with a full Summer's rest perhaps the likes of David Silva and Samir Nasri can rediscover their form of last season, but it's also likely that reinforcements will arrive in all departments.
Javi Garcia has yet to settle in English football and Jack Rodwell's propensity for injury hasn't improved with his move to the Etihad. Gareth barry is a willing operator but is not truly top class and Scott Sinclair hasn't exactly set the world on fire. City are another club willing to break the bank for a player like Gareth Bale and in a possible auction they would out-bid Utd.
Bale is mentioned here because, with only 8 games remaining the awards season will soon be upon us and, the Spurs attacking midfielder is the red-hot favourite for both the PFA and Football Writer's Award for the Player of the Season, although both of Liverpool's Luis Suarez and Man Utd's Robin van Persie are also candidates. There's little doubt that the flying Welshman will be the biggest target when the season ends and speculation is already rife with regards to whether Spurs can keep him and whether he wants to stay at White Hart Lane.
The accepted wisdom is that Spurs are unlikely to want to part with such a fantastic talent, no matter what ridiculous price they may be offered, but as we've seen time and again, every player has his price, even Barcelona's Lionel Messi, whose £205m release clause was triggered when an unidentified Russian club made a audicious bid for the four-time World Player of the Year in January. Barca were obliged to accept the offer but Messi, who owes Barcelona so much, turned down the move which would have paid him £24m a year after tax.
Besides Utd and City in the Premier League there are very few clubs who could afford to buy Bale. Barcelona and Real Madrid could but he's generally accepted as a poor fit for Barca and their intricate passing style, despite Messi's desire to play alongside Bale, and Real would be a more realistic possibility. Perhaps AC Milan or Juventus could stretch their budgets for the Spurs man but Italy is not the country it once was in terms of big money transfers.
As indicated by the move for Messi the emerging big-spenders are in Russia, although its almost impossible to see Bale wanting to leave these shores for the huge culture shock that would be involved in a move to Russia. If he moves then, it would seem that there are only four options, Man Utd, Man City, Barcelona or Real Madrid. I suspect that this particular conundrum is one for next year as Bale will stay at White Hart Lane for another 12 months.
Returning to the present and this weekend's games here's BritEvents full preview: -
Saturday 6 April
Reading v Southampton - 12.45pm ko at the Madejski Stadium. Southampton's fantastic 2-1 win over Chelsea last week has seen confidence surge at St. Mary's and one more win should see them safe for this season. Can they get that win at the Madejski, where Reading can really kiss their Premier League status goodbye should they lose here? Probably, if they can replicate the form shown of late. Reading were torn apart by Arsenal in Nigel Adkins first game at the helm, and he is probably already looking at damage limitation and planning for an immediate return to the top flight, as nobody believes the Royals can now avoid relegation. The game against the club that brutally sacked him only a couple of months ago adds extra spice to a game that doesn't really need it. Southampton look a better team than Reading, having just a extra touch of quality where it really matters - going forward. Saints to add insult to injury for Adkins.
Norwich v Swansea - 3pm ko at Carrow Road. At Christmas Norwich probably felt they had sufficient points in the bag to avoid being dragged into a nerve-jangling relegation battle, but their complete loss of form has seen them plummet to a place just four points above bottom three. Wins for the teams around them and a loss for the Canaries would see them as serious contenders for the drop and Swansea should be in no mood to do them any favours. The Swans have lost three straight and that record belies their overall good form probably being a reaction to winning the League Cup and reaching the 40 point safety level. Norwich have a bad habit of drawing too many games and, as we know, bad habits are hard to shake. I predict another draw, although there will be goals.
Stoke v Aston Villa - 3pm ko at the Britannia Stadium. Like Norwich, Stoke's abysmal run of form has seen them inexorably drawn into the relegation picture and their opponents in this game, Aston Villa, will be hungry for three points and should fight accordingly. Stoke are a difficult team to beat, particularly at home, but they just can't seem to ever score enough goals -they've only netted 27 goals in 31 games, the worst record in the Premier League. This needs to change if they are to avoid being dragged into the battle to avoid the drop. Villa's problem on the other hand is conceding silly goals, mainly through the inexperience of their team. Paul Lambert believes in youth development but in a relegation dogfight experience really counts. Luckily they have quality up front with Agbonlahor and Benteke, and that will see them take the points here.
West Brom v Arsenal - 3pm ko at the Hawthorns. West Brom are one of the few teams who are coasting at the moment, their season done, at least in spirit - no relegation and no place in Europe. However, their 3-0 defeat at West Ham last week wasn't the result of a lack of effort, merely some superb finishing by the Hammers. If Albion display the same effort this week they'll push all the way an Arsenal team that brushed Reading easily aside last week. The Gunners will be without key players Jack Wilshere and top scorer Theo Walcott, who should be back next week. However, Arsene Wenger has plenty of quality to fall back on with Giroud and Cazorla weighing in with some important goals lately, propelling Arsenal to five league wins out of their last six games. Simply, Arsenal need the points more than Albion and that will be enough to drive them to victory.
Sunday 7 April
Liverpool v West Ham - 1.30pm ko at Anfield. Liverpool haven't given up hope of securing European football next season but in truth they'll struggle as the teams immediately above them, Everton and Arsenal, keep winning. The Reds should feel confident with the visit of West Ham as Sam Allardyce's team are pretty poor away, although they enjoyed a fine win over West Brom last week, the on-loan from Liverpool Andy Carroll scoring two fine goals. Carroll can't lay against Liverpool, his parent club, and his place is likely to be taken by Carlton Cole. Another former Liverpool old boy, Joe Cole, also misses out through injury. Liverpool have no fresh injury concerns and will likely field the same team that won at Villa last week. The Reds will win by a couple of goals I fancy.
Spurs v Everton - 2.05pm ko at White Hart Lane. A great game to look forward to, for fans of the two clubs and neutrals alike. Both are pushing hard in their attempt to snatch a Champions League spot, or at worst the last Europa League place. Spurs came back from their minor wobble to win last week at Swansea, that man Gareth Bale showing inspired form once again, although he will miss this game due to the ankle injury he sustained against Basel on Thursday. The play of Jan Vertonghen is also proving a joy to watch. The Belgian is a terrific tackler and his distribution and movement off the ball are first class - a fine example for any up-and-coming defender. It would have been interesting to see him tested by the skills of two of his international team mates, Marouane Fellaini and Kevin Mirallas, but unfortunately they both appear set to miss out, Fellaini with a suspension and Mirallas with a groin strain. Balancing up the injury absences Spurs still look the stronger outfit and my gut tells me they'll manage a narrow win.
Chelsea v Sunderland - 3pm ko at Stamford Bridge. Sunderland will visit Stamford Bridge in desperate need of three points with a new and inexperienced, at least in the top flight, manager in charge, in the guise of Paulo di Canio, the new boss of the Black Cats. The choice will turn out to be either inspired or pointless, the latter being my suggestion. Di Canio may, in the fullness of time, justify his appointment and prove his detractors wrong, but the real problem with Sunderland is a lack of overall quality in the squad, not the ability of the manager. I hope Sunderland stick with the Italian should they be relegated as he really doesn't have enough time to significantly affect the outcome of this season. He also has to counter a minor injury crisis which doesn't bode well for the remainder of the season. For Chelsea Demba Ba is likely to return although Gary Cahill and Ashley Cole are out injured. Chelsea should be far too strong for Sunderland and I sense a handy win.
Newcastle v Fulham - 3pm ko at St. James' Park. Newcastle are another team a little too close to the relegation zone than is comfortable, although they don't share the same appearance of doomed resignation as near-neighbours Sunderland. However, three points against the poor travelling Fulham would be welcome all the same. The one thing Newcastle must do is shackle Dimitar Berbatov as Fulham don't lose when he scores, as they showed once again in their 3-2 defeat of QPR last Monday. Newcastle were well beaten in Lisbon on Thursday and the mounting injury list is starting to take its toll, with Debuchy and Tiote unlikely to be fit to play in this game alongside log term absentee Coloccini. Fulham arrive, safe from relegation, and free from worry. Newcastle are relegation threatened, nursing injuries and probably tired from their sojourn to Portugal. I still think the Magpies will win though - they will want it more.
QPR v Wigan - 4.10pm ko at Loftus Road. This is exactly the type of match for which the term 'six-pointer' was coined. A win for Rangers and they move a step nearer to moving out of the bottom three, although lots of work remains to be done. But, a defeat would see them firmly stuck in the relegation zone with little hope of escape, whilst Wigan would see their own chances of survival enhanced. QPR certainly appeared to be a team unable to grasp the seriousness of their situation in the first half of their match with Fulham, going in 3-0 down at half-time. Although they bossed the second half it was too little, too late as they lost 3-2. Harry still has hope apparently, but the games are running out. he will also have to fight relegation without influential midfielder Shaun Wright-Phillips who is out for the season. This game should be a real scrap given the circumstances, even though both teams try and play attractive football. I sense the defeat last week knocked the wind from the sails of the QPR ship and that relegation is now seen as inevitable. Sorry Rangers fans, I think Wigan will win.
Monday 8 April
Man Utd v Man City - 8pm ko at Old Trafford. Had Man City not dropped so many points in the last month this game could have been a real tense, nervous affair with huge significance in deciding the eventual destination of the Premier League trophy. As it is, with the title all but Utd's, it will be just pride and local bragging rights up for grabs, as well as a potential psychological marker for next season. The game is certainly more important for City and manager Roberto Mancini, as they are the ones who must show that they can improve and close the gap on Utd. They have to learn the harsh lessons of life at the top - how to win when playing badly, how to adapt, on a weekly basis, to league-Europe-league demands that face a team in contention, how to cope with the inevitable down turn in form following a major international championships and not to invest too heavily in African stars with the bi-annual, mid-season demands of the Africa Cup of Nations. After initially leaving out striker Robin van Persie against Chelsea Fergie is sure to start the Dutchman against City and he has tipped him to rediscover his scoring touch. I see plenty of goalmouth action and goals in this game with City needing the win, but think the eventual result will be a score draw.
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